The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has increased Bulgaria’s 2025 real GDP growth forecast to 2.8 per cent, in the EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects report, released on May 13.
In its February 2025 report, the EBRD had forecast 2.4 per cent real GDP growth in Bulgaria this year.
In its May report, the EBRD said that economic growth in Bulgaria accelerated in 2024 to 2.8 per cent, driven by a rebound of private consumption.
Real wage growth averaged 13 per cent year on year, which supported consumption alongside an acceleration of loans to households, which expanded at the rate of 19 per cent.
On the downside, investment contracted in real terms in 2024, although output in the construction sector remained resilient.
Weak foreign demand translated into a further decline of industrial output and exports.
Inflation declined to two per cent by the end of 2024 but has risen to four per cent by March 2025.
Bulgaria’s direct exposure to the US economy is limited, and the indirect impact on the manufacturing sector remains uncertain, the EBRD said.
Stronger growth in late 2024 created a strong carry-over effect, which is partly offset by the potential negative impact of higher US import tariffs.
On balance, the 2025 real GDP growth forecast is revised up to 2.8 per cent. Real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2.6 per cent in 2026, the EBRD said.
Source: https://sofiaglobe.com/
